“If I have any extra money, I will definitely buy JYP” Park Jin-young really put in 5 billion won… Why even though the target is lowered? [Shin Dong-yoon’s Now, Stock]

[Herald Economy = Reporter Shin Dong-yoon] “I trust Jinyoung hyung and go in.”

“It may be a little late, but I trust Park Jin-young.”

“I saw that Jinyoung was living there and bought it. “I will go to the end.”

Singer and producer (PD) Park Jin-young’s ‘coherence of words and actions’ is becoming a hot topic in online stock trading app communities and online stock discussion rooms. This is because she put her words into action when she appeared on a famous YouTube broadcast and said that if she had some extra money, she would buy shares of JYP Entertainment (Ent.), of which she is the largest shareholder.

Previously, PD Park said this while appearing on a live broadcast of ‘Suka World’, an economic YouTube channel with 2.97 million subscribers, in November last year.

“This is once again really good timing. The only problem is that I don’t have any personal property. “If I really had extra money, I would absolutely buy our company’s stock.”

What singer Park Jin-young and JYP Entertainment PD said while appearing on the economic YouTube channel Shuka World

And about two months later, on the 17th and 18th, PD Park purchased 60,200 shares of JYP stock. The average unit price of JYP stocks purchased by PD Park is around 83,000 won, and the total size is about 5 billion won. With this over-the-counter purchase, PD Park’s stock holdings in JYP increased to 5,462,511 shares, and his shareholding increased from 15.22% to 15.37%.

Why did PD Park acquire more JYP stocks at this time?

21.63% ↓ in 9 trading days… Rebound on Park Jin-young’s purchase news

The financial investment industry interprets it as PD Park’s purchase of JYP stocks at low prices amidst the stock price decline that continued at the beginning of the year.

On the stock market on the 18th, JYP’s stock price closed at 82,600 won. JYP’s stock price, which reached 105,400 won as of the closing price on the 5th, fell by 21.63% in just 9 trading days. This year, JYP’s stock price fell for 8 out of 13 trading days until the 18th.

Compared to 141,100 won on July 25th of last year, when JYP’s stock price reached its peak, the current stock price has fallen by almost half to 58.54%. Meanwhile, the market capitalization also fell from 5.087 trillion won to less than 3 trillion won.

Why did JYP’s stock price, which was doing well, decline so sharply?

Securities analysts say that the reason for the weak stock price is the growing concern about JYP’s poor performance in the fourth quarter. In particular, the decline in album sales was a major blow. The 8th mini album ‘BORN TO BE’ by JYP’s representative girl group ‘ITZY’ recorded sales of 318,693 copies in the first week of release. This is far below the previous work’s sales of 820,000 copies.

Meanwhile, the news of PD Park’s purchase provided the impetus for stocks that were in a weak position to rebound. On the KOSDAQ market on the 19th, JYP’s stock price closed at 84,100 won, up 1.82% from the previous trading day. Investment confidence moved because the largest shareholder purchasing his own shares can be read as a sign of confidence in the future of his company and business.

“It may continue to fall a year from now, but I am saying I want to buy not looking one year from now, but three years from now, five years from now. “I believe in our company’s system and team members.”

What singer Park Jin-young and JYP Entertainment PD said while appearing on the economic YouTube channel Shuka World

“Excessive stock price decline… “Album sales are sluggish, actually less.”

Analysis on where PD Park’s confidence comes from has recently been ongoing in the stock market. If you look closely at the numbers showing sluggish album sales, you will see that they are somewhat different from reality.

Shinhan Investment & Securities analyzed that 15% of the combined market capitalization of the ‘four entertainment companies’ including JYP, Hive, SM Entertainment, and YG Entertainment evaporated as the initial sales of albums by artists who returned in January fell below market expectations..

The gist of the analysis is that since the comeback of JYP ITZY and N-MIX in January, only the daily statistics of ‘Hanteo Chart’, which focuses more on the domestic market, have been released, and the contents of ‘Circle Chart’, which fully reflects overseas shipments and deliveries, must also be seen. This means you can know the exact amount of album sales.

Ji In-hae, a researcher at Shinhan Investment & Securities, said, “It means that only the minimum sales volume is being shared, which appears to be a very poor performance as overseas sales volume has not been added,” adding, “If you limit it to the Hanteo chart shared in the market, ITZY’s initial volume is 61% compared to the previous work.” “It may seem like a % decrease, but in the end, the decline in sales of this album will only be around 30%,” he predicted.

Researcher Ji continued, “From a fan’s perspective, they have to buy new albums, concert tickets with increased prices, new goods in front of the concert hall, and even pay a monthly fee to communicate with stars on the fandom platform,” limiting it to albums. Instead of a decrease in sales, it is expected that overall sales will grow due to dispersion of sales and fandom consumption due to increases in sales and fandom consumption due to increases in concerts, goods, music and streaming due to market growth, platform profits, and increases in advertising and intellectual property (IP) prices.

Some say that JYP’s current stock price is excessively undervalued.

Lee Hwa-jeong, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, said, “There are excessive market concerns due to poor initial sales of ITZY’s album. Although the initial sales trend is disappointing, it is premature to judge the artist’s growth phase less than 10 days after release.”

In the securities market, the target price was also lowered… The question mark of poor box office performance needs to be erased.

According to the consensus of financial information company FnGuide, which synthesized analysis results from domestic securities companies, JYP’s expected sales and operating profit in the fourth quarter of last year are expected to reach KRW 159.5 billion and KRW 49.1 billion, respectively up 38.45% and 91.05% from the same period last year. When expanded to last year, sales (KRW 570.4 billion) and operating profit (KRW 180.9 billion) are expected to increase by 64.90% and 87.27%, respectively, compared to a year ago.

Of course, not all securities companies are presenting only ‘rosy’ analyzes and forecasts for JYP. This is because there are some companies that have adjusted their target stock prices downward.

Daishin Securities proposed a new target price of 135,000 won, down 10% from the previous 150,000 won.

Lim Soo-jin, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, “Following Stray Kids, ITZY and Nmix’s new album sales have continued to decline, so a downward adjustment in album sales in 2024 is inevitable. “It is difficult to expect the same growth in album sales as last year.”

Choi Min-ha, a researcher at Samsung Securities, also lowered the target stock price by 12% from 146,000 won to 128,000 won. This is because we lowered our profit estimate for this year by 7% to reflect the decline in Chinese tool volumes, and lowered our target price-to-earnings ratio (PER) from 33x to 30x.

Park Soo-young, a researcher at Hanwha Investment & Securities, also said, “I am somewhat concerned about box office success, rather than ‘performance’ as represented by album sales. He lowered the target stock price by 28% from 153,000 won to 110,000 won, saying, “It reflects the decline in box office performance in the entertainment industry and the resulting slowdown in relative growth compared to the past.”

Researcher Park Soo-young also cited contract renewal issues with the company’s main IPs, Twice (9 years old) and Stray Kids (6 years old), as a potential risk. Rather than concerns about the uncertainty of artist contract renewals, he pointed out that there are greater concerns about profit margins when sales are centered on IPs with a long history beyond the contract renewal point, and the fact that the performance of new artists who debuted after Niju has been consistently poor is also something to consider.

realbighead@heraldcorp.com